US: June Employment Preview

Research evidence excerpt

US: June Employment Preview

Global Markets Research

25 June 2026Economic Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

US: June Employment Preview North America Economics

Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• We expect job gains slowed to 70k in June. Lead indicators for the labor market have ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

remained steady, but the fading impact of temporary factors that boosted hiring in May +1 212 667 9186

likely points to a softer June print. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

• The unemployment rate likely remained unchanged at 4.3%. Subdued layoffs have jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

kept the u-rate stable, while a gradual improvement in labor demand could put some +1 212 667 9637

downward pressure on the unemployment rate in coming months. We expect the Aichi Amemiya - NSI

unemployment rate to decline to 4.1% by year-end. aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

• We expect average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% m-o-m, driven by a +1 212 667 9347

negative calendar effect. Lead indicators and alternative wage measures suggest Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI

wage pressures are easing, albeit gradually. jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com

• Overall, steady labor market conditions should keep the Fedfocusedoninflationrisks +1 212 298 4739

. Global Economics

David Seif - NSI

We expect headline NFP growth slowed to 70k in June, slightly below the year-to-date david.seif@nomura.com

average (Fig.1). Some reversal in the noisy factors that boosted the May print points to a +1 212 667 9180

deceleration in June, but overall we believe that the labor market remains resilient.

Fig. 1: We expect job gains slowed to 70k in June, as the impact of temporary factors that boosted hiring in May likely waned

Nomura’s forecasts

June

Employment indicator Units Feb Mar Apr May

Nomura Consensus*