Securitized Products Weekly: Securitized Products - North America

Research evidence excerpt

Securitized Products Weekly: Securitized Products - North America

Global Markets Research

25 June 2026Securitized Products Weekly

Securitized Products - North America

Research Analysts

Securitized Products Weekly US Securitized Products

Paul Nikodem - NSI

paul.nikodem@nomura.com

Agency MBS +1 212 667 2130

Over the past week, 10yr Treasury yields rallied, while MBS underperformed across the Rohit Sinha - NSI

coupon stack. We remain neutral on the MBS basis in the near term due to the seasonal Rohit.Sinha@nomura.com

+1 212 298 4905increase in supply, but are constructive in the medium term after the seasonal supply

peak. Within the stack we prefer TBA 5.0-5.5s, and favor 3.0s within lower coupons. Chinmay Kulkarni - NSI

Separately, overseas demand for MBS increased in 2026 as the pace of decline in China’s chinmay.kulkarni1@nomura.com

+ 1 212 298 4598official holdings slowed considerably from last year, and demand from asset managers

domiciled in Europe also increased. Going forward, we expect an increase in demand Joseph Gais - NSI

from China, Canada, Japan, and some central banks in Asia, resulting in $50bn of total joseph.gais@nomura.com

net demand from overseas investors in 2026. Additionally, as mortgage rates have +1 212 667 2028

stabilized around 6.5%, we expect prepay S-curves to flatten to levels observed in Q1-Q3 Vivek Chauhan - NSI

2025, when mortgage rates were rangebound. However, we expect burnout should widen vivek.chauhan@nomura.com

the prepay differential between 2023 and 2024 vintages. Separately, we analyze prepay + 1 212 667 2290

trends and relative value between moderately (60 WALA) and very seasoned (120 WALA) Shreya Pal - NSI

generic pools. We prefer moderately seasoned pools for higher carry advantage, favoring shreya.pal1@nomura.com