Regulatory overhang persists: Travel business dragged down by regulatory adjustments and surging air fuel prices

Research evidence excerpt

Regulatory overhang persists: Travel business dragged down by regulatory adjustments and surging air fuel prices

Global Markets Research

Trip.com TCOM.OQ TCOM US 26 June 2026

EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA

RatingRegulatory overhang persists Remains Neutral

Target priceTravel business dragged down by regulatory adjustments Reduced from USD 51.00and surging air fuel prices USD 71.00

Low visibility amid persistent regulatory and macro headwinds Closing24 June price2026 USD 46.30

Trip.com’s (TCOM) 2Q26 revenue guidance of 3-8% y-y (the midpoint being 5% vs.

Bloomberg consensus of 14% y-y) reflects a near-term deceleration driven by regulatory Implied upside +10.2%

adjustments in domestic transportation and macro-driven softness in outbound travel.

Near-term visibility into 2H26 remains low, contingent on further adjustments that may be Market Cap (USD mn) 30,261.8

required by the regulator following the conclusion of the ongoing antitrust investigation. In ADT (USD mn) 139.8

view of this regulatory overhang and a challenging macro environment, we assume

TCOM management would adopt more conservative business strategies to avoid risks Relative performance chart

that might invite additional regulatory attention. Therefore, we expect revenue growth to

slow to 7% y-y in 2H26F, compared to 11% y-y in 1H26F.

In contrast, the international travel business (Trip.com) has remained solid and may grow

revenue by 54% y-y in FY26F with its net loss margin narrowing to 10% from 15% last

year. We cut our FY26F revenue and operating profit (OP) estimates by 5% and 15%,

respectively. These cuts factor in slower top-line growth amid tighter regulatory scrutiny

and lower blended margins resulting from a higher revenue share from the lower-margin

international business.