What We‘re Hearing From Insurance Investors (06/26/2026)

Research evidence excerpt

What We‘re Hearing From Insurance Investors (06/26/2026)

Update

June 26, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMInsurance | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

What We're Hearing From Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comJie Cheng +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Jie.Cheng1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3878

Insurance Investors Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

(06/26/2026) Daniel Lee, ACAS

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

In recent weeks, key areas of investor focus centered around

Insurance - Property & Casualty

private credit risk for life insurers, incremental interests in North America

Progressive, and the relative positioning of the P&C carriers Industry View Attractive

Insurance - Life/Annuity

heading into a soft market. North America

Industry View Attractive

Has Progressive troughed? Bullish conversations on Progressive appear to have

picked up quickly post May monthly results. For investors that are incrementally

bullish on the stock, May results reinforce the idea that upward EPS revisions is now

more likely, and the company's resilient underwriting should carry it through

hurricane season. That said, while investors are incrementally positive on

Progressive post May results, one key outstanding question remains: how much EPS

compression will we see in 2027? From our perspective, this is more dependent on

CAT losses now than before. The company has shown itself to be resilient in the face

of lower pricing and higher inflation thus far. That said, given the current pricing

environment, combined ratio should still erode somewhat into 2027 unless we have

another mild catastrophe season.

Private credit concerns resurface, but nothing has changed. Life insurers were