June 2026 Personal Auto Insurance Rate Filings

Research evidence excerpt

June 2026 Personal Auto Insurance Rate Filings

Update

July 1, 2026 05:44 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMInsurance - Property & Casualty | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

June 2026 Personal Auto Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comDaniel Lee, ACAS +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

Insurance Rate Filings Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

Auto insurance rate filings saw an overall -0.4% rate decrease

Insurance - Property & Casualty

for June 2026. With intense competition in the personal auto North America

space, we expect auto pricing to remain negative in 2026 as Industry View Attractive

carriers focus on new business growth & improving customer

retention.

Flattish/negative industry pricing on a trailing 6 months basis. Personal auto rate

filings in June 2026 saw an overall premium weighted average rate decrease of -

0.4% for the P&C industry, impacting ~$26.7b of auto premiums ( Exhibit 1 ). Given

the industry's current profit margins, negative overall pricing should persist in 2026

as competition intensifies. Although the impact appears to be more bifurcated. We

expect soft pricing to result in near zero premium growth for the personal auto for

the next five years as competition takes hold. This should result in deteriorating

combined ratio as pricing is likely to be notably below loss cost trend. Given auto

underwriting profit is holding up well, we expect there is more pricing decline to

come until the industry has significant auto underwriting losses.

Exhibit 1: Overall P&C industry had an overall premium weighted average rate

change of -0.4% effective June 2026 for Personal Auto

Total P&C Industry - Personal Auto Insurance Rate Filings

14.0

(%)

12.0

10.0 Change

Rate 8.0

Filed 6.0

Avg 4.0

2.0