What We‘re Hearing From Insurance Investors (07/17/2026)

Research evidence excerpt

What We‘re Hearing From Insurance Investors (07/17/2026)

Update

July 17, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMInsurance | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

What We're Hearing From Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comJie Cheng +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Jie.Cheng1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3878

Insurance Investors Daniel Lee, ACAS

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

(07/17/2026) Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

Travelers and Progressive dominated the discussion. Life

Insurance - Property & Casualty

insurance investors focused on potential deals and the broader North America

earnings setup. Industry View Attractive

Insurance - Life/Annuity

Is there a bull thesis for Travelers into the print? Despite several downgrades, North America

Industry View Attractive

Travelers held up relatively well over the past two weeks vs. peers, prompting

questions about what could support the near all-time-high P/B valuation in the

current environment. From our perspective, two bull theses could drive

performance:

• Short-term focus on Business Insurance performance: Into year-end,

investors feel Business Insurance should post solid underwriting results.

While growth slowdown feels inevitable for personal and commercial lines,

upside EPS revisions hinge on underwriting. The near-term bull case centers

on beating expectations.

• Medium-term focus on buybacks and favorable PYD: Into 2027, investors

feel strong earnings in a mild hurricane season should drive favorable PYD

and incremental buybacks. To this extent, consensus on both looks too

conservative.

Is Progressive cheap enough now? After June results and the ~9% stock decline,

several investors asked if Progressive is now cheap. It's not expensive on normalized