US Auto Manufacturers and Auto Parts & Equipment: North American Production Update

Research evidence excerpt

US Auto Manufacturers and Auto Parts & Equipment: North American Production Update

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25 Jun 2026 23:00:11 ET │ 16 pages

US Auto Manufacturers and Auto

Parts & Equipment

North American Production Update

Michael Ward AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-5754

michael.p.ward@citi.com

NA vehicle production in May totaled 1.34 million units, down 5.2% YOY but

3% above the schedule at the beginning of the month. The industry has

been consistently at plan in 10 straight months, the best performance since

pre-covid and a positive productivity read-through for the group heading

into 2Q earnings season. Thus far, 2Q production has been 40,000 units

higher than the schedules coming out of 1Q earnings season. NA light

vehicle sales were down 4% through May, hurt by the tariff prebuying in

2025, but May sales were up 4% and early data suggests another positive

comp in June. Production in 2025 ended at 15.55 million units (15.14 light

vehicle), down 3.1% YOY, largely accounted for by plant changeovers, tariff-

related adjustments, supply constraints, and BEV cutbacks. We expect

2026 production of 15.63 million units, up a fraction, easier sales comps

and inventory replenishment supports higher totals into 2027.

Turning positive — The industry exceeded the initial 1Q plan by 50,000 units and

has outperformed estimates in four consecutive quarters and is on track to exceed

the 2Q estimate by 40,000 units. North American sales were down 4.0% in the first

five months, but 2Q sales on track to be up 1% and we expect a 3% gain in the second

half, owing largely to easier comps. Higher sales and favorable inventory levels

support higher production totals heading into 2027.

Outlook — Light vehicle production totaled 6.34 million units in the first five

months, down 1.0% YOY.