Taiwan (u/g Fubon, Cathay), China Brokers (vs SOE Banks), Japan P&C, Orix

Research evidence excerpt

Taiwan (u/g Fubon, Cathay), China Brokers (vs SOE Banks), Japan P&C, Orix

and inflation, our research had big notes on AI Power Infrastructure (First Principle: Link)

and APAC Energy Transition. (Link) In APAC financials, I think Orix (8591 JT) is the name to play this theme. While the market

is still focusing on its Toshiba/Kioxia exposure, the long-term growth story hinges on their buy-low-sell-high capital recycling

business model. Orix is good at developing real asset infrastructure including green energy (i.e. Elawan) and selling at a high

price. What if Y200bn/yr is the new normal level of capital gains for the co instead of Y100-150bn and that’s structural. While the

Street is still not believing in the new CEO Takahashi’s ROE 11% target and Toshiba-related gains are masking the underlying

growth story, it’s worth doing the work, esp as they’re expanding asset mgmt for capital efficiency.

Lastly, Japan Inc.’s unwind of cross-shareholdings, another structural trend, is entering the final phase, as now Toyota-related

holdings are being unwound. (Unwind kicked off among financials, with the next leg expected to involve the Toyota group.)

Nikkei reported (Link) off-exchange elimination of the entire cross-shareholdings of MS&AD (8725 JT) by Toyota (7203 JT).

While the action is inline w/ MS&AD’s guidance, it should be still positive as the overhang on the stock is now removed. (Link)

MS&AD has been trading at a discount vs peers due to the cross-share overhang and inefficiency of being MS “&” AD. MS&AD

does have the fastest cross-share unwind plan vs peers over the next 2 yrs (70% of targeted reduction through FY29 in FY26-27.

Ask for Koki’s sector deck.) Its Japan P&C subsidiaries are consolidating (great leadership under President Funabiki) and mgmt