Mexico: Banxico - New chapter with a neutral narrative

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: Banxico - New chapter with a neutral narrative

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

25 June 2026

Mexico

Banxico - New chapter with a neutral narrative

• As widely expected, COPOM left the policy rate unchanged at 6.5% EM, Economics Research

• No change to the balance of risks and no unease regarding the Fed Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• We expect the policy rate to remain at 6.5% in the foreseeable future gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• Appendix: Strengthening the policy toolkit to improve liquidity BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

After the end of the easing cycle last month, when Banxico cut its policy rate to Santiago Homberg Saury

6.5%, the main question was regarding the bias of the statement at the start of a new (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

chapter for the central bank and whether this new guidance could be tweaked to J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

gauge the length of the pause. In the end, there were few surprises given the Morgan Grupo Financiero

unanimous decision and the fact that the balance of risks for both growth and

inflation remained unchanged: For the former, it remained tilted to the downside,

and for the latter, tilted to the upside.

Regarding the details of the balance of risks to inflation, five remained skewed to

the upside and three down. However, the ordering was changed, most likely to

reflect concerns over potential disruptions from El Niño. The upside risks are now:

i) disruptions due to foreign trade policies or an inflationary impact from

geopolitical conflicts (unchanged); ii) persistence of core inflation (unchanged);

iii) climate-related impacts (up from fifth in the prior meeting); iv) cost-related