Daily Economic Briefing: I‘d buy that for a dollar

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: I‘d buy that for a dollar

of an extended Strait closure elevated the risk Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

of a disruptive energy price shock threatening the life of the

expansion. The middle months of the year will likely highlight the ten-

sion between an energy shock drag and the business sector

The clouds appear to be clearing with the recent agreement to lift. While a moderation in global growth towards a potential

open the Strait, but the consequences of the year’s energy pace is anticipated, several factors should cushion the drag

price shock are still being felt. Global GDP growth looks set and set the stage for a growth reacceleration later this year.

to downshift into midyear as consumer purchasing power is

squeezed by the recent sharp CPI spike. While headline infla- • A normalization in business sentiment… A rebound in

business sentiment from its slide following last year’s

tion should moderate next quarter, the pass-through of this

trade war took hold as we turned into 2026 and was the

shock to higher core inflation will persist. The energy price

catalyst for the recovery in non-tech spending and hiring.

shock has thus raised our 2026 projections for headline

The rise in our business expectations index was interrupt-

(1%pt) and core inflation (0.2%pt) and lowered our global

ed by the Middle East conflict, but receding tensions and

GDP growth projections by 0.2%pt.

falling energy prices point to a resumption in the normal-

ization in sentiment in the coming months.

Global forecast evolution, 2026

%4Q/4Q Global business confidence and employment

4.0 Headline CPI* Std dev from 2010-19 avg %3m/3m, saar; incl. Apr. track. est.

3.5 Employment 1

Core CPI*

3.0 2 0

Global GDP 1 2.5 -1

Composite expectations,

2.0 -2 3-months ahead 0