Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.O): Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.O): Model Update

Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.O)

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Structure Therapeutics

Valuation

Our price target for GPCR is $100 per share, derived by performing a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis where we project

probability-adjusted free cash flows (FCF) explicitly through 2040. We utilize a -15% terminal growth rate to provide some value

for potential for future assets generated from Structure’s discovery platform while also accounting for loss of exclusivity across

Structure’s clinical pipeline in years beyond 2040 (e.g., aleniglipron’s patents are expected to expire between 2041 and 2045,

before accounting for potential patent extension). We then discount cash flows by 11.5% annually, which reflects a premium for

potential M&A. Within our coverage, we generally utilize a 12.5% discount rate for companies that have established clinical

proof-of-concept.

Risks

We rate GPCR High Risk based on the usual volatility of biotech stocks and uncertainty/risk associated with clinical trials and

drug development. Structure has many of the risks frequently associated with biotech companies. Share performance is closely

linked to clinical and regulatory updates, and therefore any updates that fall short of expectations could lead to downside vs.

our target.

Upside risks include: 1) Aleniglipron and potentially one or more amylin assets are acquired. 2) Competitor data readouts

underperform vs. investor expectations.

Downside risks include: 1) Aleniglipron is not acquired. 2) Competitor data readouts overperform vs. investor expectations,

setting a high competitive bar for aleniglipron.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater or less than we anticipate, the stock will likely have