US Economics: NFP Preview – Rising jobless claims, softer job growth

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics: NFP Preview – Rising jobless claims, softer job growth

US Economics

25 June 2026 Citi Research

After three months of strong payroll job gains and the unemployment rate stable at

4.3%, markets have become accustomed to the narrative that the labor market has

stabilized. But a number of other weaker data points – most importantly rising

initial and continuing jobless claims – lead us to think that strength in payroll data

is not a sign of sustainably stronger demand for workers.

We expect a modest 25k increase in payrolls in June with the unemployment rate

remaining at 4.3%. Softer job growth should at least be a reminder of the volatility

that has defined monthly payroll data since early 2025 and the fact that slower

immigration was supposed to entail lower average job growth this year. One month

of softer job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate is unlikely to

significantly change the perception of a stable labor market. However, 25k job

growth would be soft enough to push back on markets pricing a substantial

probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as July.

We continue to expect that the persistent low-hiring environment will result in a

rising unemployment rate this year. Initial jobless claims have been rising on

average over the last few weeks. Summer increases in claims the last few years

have been a reliable signal that the unemployment rate will also rise above its

trailing 12-month average. This would be a more important sign that the labor

market remains fragile and is a key factor in our expectation that the Fed will still be

cutting rates later this year.

Figure 1. Citi June NFP forecast versus consensus Figure 2. Initial jobless claims have been rising in June