A cyclical state of mind: 2026 Mid-Year Global Economic Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

A cyclical state of mind: 2026 Mid-Year Global Economic Outlook

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

25 June 2026

A cyclical state of mind

2026 Mid-Year Global Economic Outlook

• The first half of 2026 delivered a material energy price shock, but we Economic and Policy Research

maintain our forecast for a cyclical upturn—led by a continued tech boom, Bruce Kasman

and a rebound in hiring and non-tech investment—that sustains global (1-212) 834-5515

growth at an above-potential pace. bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• As projected in our year-ahead outlook, fading business caution following Joseph Lupton

last year’s trade war is the catalyst for the cyclical lift now underway. (1-212) 834-5735

• The risk of a disruptive energy price shock short-circuiting this lift has joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

been reduced by the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

global GDP growth is still expected to downshift into midyear as the recent Nora Szentivanyi

CPI spike softens consumption gains. (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

• Several factors should temper this downshift and set the stage for a 2H26 J.P. Morgan Securities plc

reacceleration. Industrial activity will be supported by a positive turn in Maia Crook

the inventory cycle. Fiscal measures are cushioning the household (1-212) 622-8435

purchasing power squeeze, while the opening of the Strait should boost maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

sentiment.

Alex Gallin

• Two important developments to watch for: First, we see the recent pickup (1-212) 270-5492

in US job growth as linked to fading business caution and anticipate alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

sustained gains of 100k per month or faster. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA