Colombia Economics: Citi Expectations Survey – June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia Economics: Citi Expectations Survey – June 2026

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25 Jun 2026 14:26:25 ET │ 10 pages

Colombia Economics

Citi Expectations Survey – June 2026

CITI'S TAKE

Esteban Tamayo AC

Survey results suggest inflation persistence remains the dominant +1-212-816-6580

constraint, reinforcing expectations of continued near-term tightening. The esteban.tamayo@citi.com

median respondent expects a 50bp hike at the June meeting, taking the

policy rate to 11.75% from the current 11.25%, with most of the distribution

clustered around this outcome and only limited dispersion toward more

aggressive or cautious moves. At the same time, higher inflation

expectations into 2026 and a modest drift in 2027 keep the terminal rate

anchored near 12.25%, pointing to a cycle that is becoming more extended

rather than deeper, while growth remains stable but below potential.

Activity — Growth expectations remained broadly stable, with a marginal softening

bias at the front of the horizon. The average respondent now sees GDP growth at

2.40% in 2026, broadly in line with last month’s survey, and at 2.20% in 2027, also

largely unchanged. Expectations for 2028 stand at 2.79%, suggesting a gradual

normalization beyond the policy tightening phase.

Inflation — Expectations increased further for 2026 and drifted higher for 2027,

reinforcing the persistence narrative. Year-end headline inflation expectations for

2026 stand at 6.62% on average, rising from last month’s survey, while 2027

expectations ticked up to 4.96%. In the near term, respondents expect June

inflation at 0.33% MoM, pointing to continued sequential pressures despite tighter

policy.

CB Policy Rates — The median respondent points to a 50bp hike in June, with

expectations tightly clustered but some residual dispersion.