Argentina Real GDP and current account improved in 1Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina Real GDP and current account improved in 1Q26

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

25 June 2026

Argentina

Real GDP and current account improved in 1Q26

Private consumption gained in 1Q26, while investment Economic and Policy Research

faltered Diego W. Pereira

(1-212) 834-4321

The national accounts report for the first quarter showed a 3.0% q/q saar expansion diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

in GDP, well above the 1.3%ar pace implied by the monthly activity indicator. The J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

strong print follows a 4.7%ar gain in 4Q26, revised up from 3.4%. Taken together, Lucila Barbeito

this marks the seventh consecutive quarter of expansion, with activity growing at (54-11) 4348-7229

a 2.4%ar average over the past four quarters. In level terms, real GDP has risen lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

8.9% sa since the trough in March 2024 and now stands 1.5% above the previous JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

cyclical peak reached in 2Q22 (Figure 1).

The demand-side breakdown is instructive. Private consumption grew 3.4% q/q

saar, while fixed investment contracted 6.7% q/q saar. The revised seasonally

adjusted series now shows four consecutive quarterly declines in investment,

leaving it 1.3% below its 1Q25 peak, in sharp contrast to household consumption,

which has increased 3.5% over the same period (Figure 2).

Real public consumption fell sharply, declining -9.3% q/q saar to a new low under

Milei and reverting to levels last seen in early 2015.

On the external side, both exports and imports contracted in volume terms in the

first quarter, down 11.9% and 9.8% q/q saar, respectively. The drop in exports

largely reflects strong gains in the prior two quarters, when volumes expanded at

a 27.2%ar pace per quarter on average.