US: The takeaway from GDP, PCE, and durables

Research evidence excerpt

US: The takeaway from GDP, PCE, and durables

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

25 June 2026

US: The takeaway from GDP, PCE,

and durables

• Real consumer spending rose a solid 0.3%m/m in May; while above our Economic and Policy Research

expectations, our 2.0% 2Q forecast is still tracking given some downward Abiel Reinhart

revisions to earlier months (1-617) 712 9122

• Core PCE rose 0.32%m/m, near our expectations, and the over-year-ago abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NA

rate rose from 3.3% to 3.4%

• Inflation has firmed across the core, market-based core, and super-core,

and the trimmed mean is also starting to pick up, though this should have

all been well known at last week’s FOMC meeting

• The BEA announced some upcoming methodology updates to PCE,

including to portfolio management and software and accessories, two

categories that have added significantly to the core PCE deflator over the

last year

• Nominal compensation growth in recent months has remained similar to

• 1Q GDP was revised from 1.6% to 2.1%, as the trade drag narrowed,

partially offset by a downward revision to services consumption

• Durable goods orders and shipments continue to perform well, and we see

some upside risks to our already strong 12% equipment spending forecast

May PCE

Consumer spending rose a solid 0.3%m/m in May, ahead of our 0.1% forecast, but

because of downward revisions to prior months the quarter is still tracking toward

our 2.0% forecast. That would be almost right in line with the average 1.8% pace

from the start of 2025 through 1Q of this year. Although gasoline prices surged this

quarter, households also benefitted from tax cuts. Currently reported data further

suggest that households have smoothed consumption by letting the saving rate