Brazil: Downside surprise in June CPI preview, but uneven disinflation as goods accelerate

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil: Downside surprise in June CPI preview, but uneven disinflation as goods accelerate

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

25 June 2026

Brazil

Downside surprise in June CPI preview, but uneven

disinflation as goods accelerate

• Headline undershot forecasts for food-at-home, with airfare inflation partially EM, Economic and Policy Research

offsetting the downside surprise. Gustavo Ribeiro

• Underlying services were the key dovish signal, as core services came in below (55-11)gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com4950-4059

our forecast (driven largely by vehicle insurance volatility), pulling core IPCA-

15 below our estimate. Cassiana Fernandez

(55-11) 4950-3369

cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com• Disinflation remains uneven and pressures persist, with core decelerating on a

saar basis but core goods momentum firming and core services still elevated. Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

The June CPI preview (IPCA-15) showed more favorable characteristics than

anticipated, with the headline print coming in below both our forecast and the

consensus estimate. The main deviation versus our call was food-at-home prices,

which surprised to the downside and accounted for most of the miss in the headline.

Airfares printed higher, partially offsetting the downside surprise.

More importantly, underlying services were meaningfully softer than we expected:

core services rose 0.27% m/m nsa versus 0.54% in our forecast. The main driver

of the miss was vehicle insurance, a component that has displayed heightened

volatility recently. As a result, core IPCA-15 registered 0.34% m/m nsa, 8 basis

points below our estimate (Table 1).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, June core IPCA-15 decelerated from 5.5% m/m

saar to 4.6%. The three-month average remains around 5.2% (3m/3m saar, Figures

1 and 2).