Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

25 June 2026

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Economic and Policy Research

• Flights in China are beginning to recover from a weak level, and flights in Nora Szentivanyi

EM Edge (ex GCC) are steadily improving. These gains are partially offset by (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

a decline in the rest of Asia, and the US is increasingly underperforming its J.P. Morgan Securities plc

typical seasonal increase. Globally, flights continue to fall from 2025 levels. Maia Crook

• Vehicle activity continues to look more resilient in the US and Asia, keeping (1-212) 622-8435

the global aggregate relatively solid, but Europe continues to lag its maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

historical performance.

Artem Fakhretdinov

• Global tanker imports unwound some of their recent recovery, led by a (1-212) 272-1839

decline in Europe and Latam. The US and Asia/Pacific ex-China continue to artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

move sideways near pre-conflict levels, while China remains depressed. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Our Chase Card trackers of US consumer spending continues to show

little signs of strain, echoing the message of resilience from the hard data.

• The decline in fuel prices is lagging the decline in crude. Global retail fuel

prices fell 1.8%w/w (~5%m/m in June) but are still 18% above pre-conflict. US

gasoline price is down 14% from the peak, but up 32% vs pre-conflict.

• Jet-fuel prices are lagging the move in Brent, but fertilizer prices are now

below pre-conflict. Container shipping costs are notably still moving

higher, signaling building core goods price pressures.

Daily flight numbers Retail gasoline prices by region