Social Media Sentiment Deep Dive: How shifts in retail sentiment shape US equity markets - June Update

Research evidence excerpt

Social Media Sentiment Deep Dive: How shifts in retail sentiment shape US equity markets - June Update

Source: JP Morgan Data Intelligence,Bloomberg

What does the recent sentiment set-up mean for US stock market performance?

Although retail sentiment has trended lower since the start of 2026, the softening in June appears more notable relative to e arlier

moves this year ( Chart 1 , 2 ). Historically, comparable 20 -day sentiment declines (< -0.5z, shown in grey in Table 1) have been

associated with positive SPW returns on average - +0.6z over the short term (5 days) and +0.1z over the medium term (20 days) -

modestly outperforming SPX (+0.2z and -0.3z, respectively). While the magnitude of the outperformance is modest,the signal should

be viewed in the context of SPX’s leadership versus SPW (as reflected in the downward trend in the SPW/SPX ratio since 2023 , Chart

1), which shapes relative performance across sentiment regimes. Against this backdrop, the recent sentiment deterioration could

catalyse a further bounce in SPW.

That said, broader AI adoption, a supportive US monetary policy path, steady economic growth, resilient corporate earnings, and a

stable geopolitical landscape remain key tailwinds for SPX, and we remain constructive on longer-term SPX performance, consistent

with an elevated sentiment regime.

Table 1 |Retail Sentiment and Average Forward Returns (SPW and SPX, z-score and percentage), data since 2021

What is the broader consensus across teams on the US stock market?

Our JPM Equity Research Strategists maintain a constructive view on the S&P 500 in H2 ‘26 , supported by the AI capex cycle and

improving earnings momentum. While the year-end price target was recently lifted to 7,800, they caution that the path upwards is