US Diversified Banks: 2026 Stress Test Results – Favorable Read Despite Static SCBs Until 2027

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US Diversified Banks: 2026 Stress Test Results – Favorable Read Despite Static SCBs Until 2027

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25 Jun 2026 08:35:49 ET │ 14 pages

US Diversified Banks

2026 Stress Test Results – Favorable Read Despite Static SCBs Until

Benjamin Gerlinger AC

CITI'S TAKE +1-212-816-3538

While current SCBs are frozen until 2027 as the Fed awaits public feedback, benjamin.gerlinger@citi.com

this year’s results will have no impact on regulatory capital minimums, Mikhail Mrotchekthough we thought it still useful to run the math as a read-through into

banks portfolios. By our estimates, 15 of our 21 large-cap banks would have +1-212-816-2345

been at the 2.5% floor, with the biggest improvement for CFG (~200bps misha.mrotchek@citi.com

lower implied SCB), an encouraging signal for next year’s results, and GS Kaili Wang, CFA

and JPM would have seen a modest ~30bps increase to SCBs. Even though +1-716-730-7408these results have no impact to regulatory capital, we note JPM, GS, MS,

and WFC put out press releases announcing dividend increases and share kaili.wang@citi.com

repurchase authorizations following the results.

Comment on Loan Losses/Other Idiosyncrasies from This Year — Total loan losses

were ~20bps worse than last year, though we believe y/y comparison is skewed given

7 names did not participate in last year’s stress test. The median total loan losses

were in fact ~30bps better (~6.0% median) when using last year’s participants. By

loan bucket, mortgage loss rates showed most improvement (~40bps), while Other

Consumer (~270bps higher), CRE (~150bps higher), and C&I (~110bps higher) loss

rates increased the most, which was driven by more severe changes in corporate

bond spreads and CRE prices under the severely adverse scenarios in this year’s

hypothetical scenario.