JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC (1-212) 834-2370 Pavan D Talreja, CFA (1-212) 834-2051 North America Credit Research J P M O R G A Nnathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com pavan.talreja@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 25 June 2026

Silvi Mantri (1-212) 834-7239

silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

HG Energy spreads have room to lag as oil declines and investors reposition to fund active

primary calendar; 2H Outlook Webinar this Monday at 10AM; HG Spotlight published

Issuance has been unusually heavy this June with $174bn priced MTD, already a record for the month of June surpassing June

2020 ($163bn) with 4 more trading sessions to go. As well, this is the first time we’ve seen supply higher in June than May since

2014, testament to the notion that issuance this year from AI capex and other debut issuers is disrupting some of the usual

seasonal patterns in our market. This issuance surge from unanticipated issuers against a backdrop of steady but not overly strong

fund inflows makes it more likely that investors will look to raise cash to fund new issue purchases. We believe the Energy sector

is a good candidate for this as oil prices continue to decline. Indeed, Energy has been a distinct outperformer YTD, tighter by

14bp vs JULI tighter by 2bp. As such, Energy is now trading just 3bp wide to JULI which is at the 16th percentile for this

differential over the past year (it averaged 17bp over the past year up until the start of the conflict).

Figure 1: The energy sector has been a distinct outperformer YTD vs Figure 2: YTD sector spread changes

the index

120 bp JULI Energy Spread 15 YTD Spread change, bp 12.9

115 10 JULI Overall Spread 4.4

110 5

105 -5