US Economics: The Daily Update – Firm PCE, soft CPI, rising jobless claims

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics: The Daily Update – Firm PCE, soft CPI, rising jobless claims

US Economics

25 June 2026 Citi Research

9 of 18 “dots” suggesting rate hikes at last week’s FOMC meeting freed interest rate

markets to price-in the potential for rate hikes and currently about 9bp are priced

in for July and 21bp by September. Front-end interest rates are likely to be

particularly sensitive to upcoming data including PCE inflation and jobless claims

this morning and next week’s jobs report.

The pick-up in payrolls growth and stable unemployment rate mean the labor

markets look stable and markets may be most focused on inflation this morning.

Estimates for core PCE are clustered at 0.3-0.4%MoM and the 0.37%MoM we are

projecting would technically surprise Bloomberg consensus for 0.3%MoM to the

upside. But the stronger core PCE reading is being driven in part by portfolio

management fees that follow equity prices. Core CPI was a much softer 0.21%MoM

and in our view is currently a better indicator for consumer inflationary pressure.

The Fed’s new inflation and data task forces may ultimately reach a similar

conclusion.

Fed hikes would be more likely if there were signs that the labor market is

tightening, which has been absent with hiring rates low and the unemployment

rate stable. The rise in continuing jobless claims over the last few weeks points to a

softer labor market report for June and suggests that residual seasonal patterns

with weaker labor market data over the summer may repeat.

Key data today:

8:30 AM

– Despite a moderate 0.21% increase in core CPI in May, we again expect

another month of much stronger core PCE inflation with a 0.37%MoM

increase. But for the first time since late-2025, core goods prices in PCE