CEEMEA Strategy: What did MSCI say about our markets?

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Strategy: What did MSCI say about our markets?

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

25 June 2026

CEEMEA Strategy: What did MSCI

say about our markets?

Nothing surprised us to the upside. But we have a

better idea for an Eastern European index

Another June, another week of sunny London weather and another year of MSCI’s CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

Country Classification reports here and here). This year, we were hoping for Strategy

incremental progress on Oman and Kazakhstan’s journey from Frontier Market to David Aserkoff, CFA AC

Emerging Market status. Hoping but not expecting. We had zero expectations that (44-20) 7134-5887

anything would change on Greece’s move from EM to DM. None of our hopes were david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

fulfilled and the results for CEEMEA were entirely inline with our own low J.P. Morgan Securities plc

expectations for progress. Our index team published their take here, excerpted Inga Q Galeni AC

below. Country-by-country we note: (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

• Greece is moving to DM in May ’27 – entirely inline, zero new info. As our J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

colleague Pankaj Gupta wrote in April here, we expect the MSCI change to

result in c $300m in net outflows, with net inflows into the four banks worth

c $200m plus small inflows in Allwyn (nee OPAP) and PPC (table below).

There are c $400m in total outflows from Jumbo and OTE, the two MSCI EM

Standard constituents that move to DM Small Cap. In CEEMEA Strategy, we

have written several times (here, here and here) that we think the migration

from EM to DM will drain interest from the Greek market and that outside of

the in/outflow story, this will be a net negative for the Greek stock market.