US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Japan. UKX +0.4%, SX5E +0.6%, SXXP +0.5%, DAX +0.7%. CSI +1.6%, HSI -1.4%, NKY +4.6%,

ASX -0.7%, KOSPI +5.4%.

CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)

• US MACRO DATA: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Price Index, GDP (Revision),

Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Durable/Cap Goods Orders, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at

8:30am ET. Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity at 11am ET.

• US EARNINGS: DRI, FDXF, JEF, MKC, SNX

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) Machine Tool Orders (revision) at 2:00am ET. (Germany) GfK

Consumer Confidence at 2:00am ET. (France) Consumer Confidence at 2:45am ET. (Japan)

Tokyo CPI at 7:30pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Given the MU print, AI / Tech are expected to dominate the tape in the very near-term, but it is worthwhile to

consider yesterday’s price action. Yesterday’s session is giving us a feeling that the market is returning to

price action seen in Jan – Feb, beginning with a squeeze as investors de-risk around AI / Tech as they

prepared for MU earnings. The decline in energy prices, specifically, and commodity prices generally is

giving hope of the ‘immaculate disinflation’ sought in 2022; this is manifesting in consumer-related plays

seeing significant outperformance. Positioning Intelligence tells us that investors have very low exposure to

consumer-related plays and that the ‘Reopening’ playbook used during COVID is likely to work here, should

these trends continue. Things like Airlines, Autos, Homebuilders / Housing, Lodging, Restaurants, Retailers,

etc. may be poised for a further tactical, bullish run. These are the types of plays we referenced in our

Monetization Menu and in which we continue to hold a preference along broader Cyclicals. In order for the