The Antipodean Strategist: Staying ahead of the (Phillips) Curve

Research evidence excerpt

The Antipodean Strategist: Staying ahead of the (Phillips) Curve

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

25 June 2026

The Antipodean Strategist

Staying ahead of the (Phillips) Curve

• Australian CPI and unemployment data this week were favourable, and we see Australian and New Zealand Interest

downside risks to the RBA’s June quarter forecasts for headline and trimmed Rate Strategy

mean inflation. The significance of this combo is punctuated by RBA Deputy Ben K Jarman AC

Governor Hauser’s speech on the Phillips Curve (PC). Hauser noted the (61-2) 9003-7982

importance of non-linearities, with the three consecutive tightenings this year ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

partly reflecting fears that the economy was already operating on “the steeper Tom Kennedy

part”, and supply shocks/inflation expectations spillovers from the Middle East (61-2) 9003-7981

risked “further raising and steepening” the PC. tom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• Below we run through our previous work on this topic, including the Beveridge

Curve and V/U. Our read is that these metrics have broadly normalized to near

target-consistent levels. Spot inflation is of course elevated on goods/energy

right now, and 3Y yields have already compressed vs the whites. This limits

scope for blunt bullish trades (e.g. long 3s), even though in our view the RBA is

done.

• Micro-flatteners are the safer expression for constrained/eventual easing: Take

profit on the Nov-26/May-27 RBA OIS flattener and restructure to Nov-26/Aug-

27. This captures a slightly wider window for potential cuts and has an attractive

entry level with the immediate hiking bias - which we expect will be preserved

in near-term meetings - meaning that only 6bp of easing is priced on net between