Pernod-Ricard SA: Key highlights from CEO Fireside Chat

Research evidence excerpt

Pernod-Ricard SA: Key highlights from CEO Fireside Chat

ebase of the dividend may not be considered. Net net, the

call provided reassurance that Pernod is raising the pace and evolving its offering

to address changes in industry dynamics. This is welcome but may take time to

impact performance amid a spirit demand momentum that seems to weaken in

major markets, putting the feasibility of the MT algorithm for FY27 in question

with lingering downside risks to EPS (BBG consensus at 2.6% and 3.4% for

organic sales and EBIT for FY27 vs -3.4% and -5.2% resp for FY26E).

• Key takeaways: 1 - Puts and takes within Pernod’s non-US and China

business. Mr. Ricard characterised the ‘Rest of the World’ portion of Pernod’s

business as doing relatively well, generally growing, (+1% over the first 9m of

fiscal 26) but with varying trends within - Markets outside of China and the US

make up 75% of Pernod’s business. Strength in the East/Pacific region (Japan,

Australia) as well as India (20m new legal age drinkers annually make for

attractive long-term fundamentals), Nigeria, South Africa, and Central

Europe, has been tempered by weakness in the Middle East (conflict-related),

Mexico, and a deteriorating Spain. 2 - US market weakness to be dealt with

through agility and innovation. The weaknesses in the US market were

characterised as affordability issues, despite green shoots in the January and

February sell-out data this year that didn’t materialise into broader strength.

Affordability issues make it tough to take price, though Mr. Ricard noted

Pernod’s pricing in the market most recently reported at -1% to flat, wa a

relatively muted decline . The changes in consumer behaviour in the US market

are happening quicker than previously in Mr. Ricard’s experience, and the