EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 25 June 2026

RUB Muted activity in a 74.70-75.00 range yesterday and no real sign of a wave of exporter selling

yet. Russian equities stabilised a little after the nasty sell off, so it feels like we could be stuck

in limbo into the end of the week.

ZAR USDZAR held below the 200DMA once again, and we continue to think these are good levels

to start fading the move higher in USD/EM, while keeping USD longs mainly versus G10. Over

the past couple of months, USDZAR has traded mostly below fair value on the back of

improved domestic fundamentals, but the pair has recently converged back as risk

sentiment remains on the back foot. That said, I still think the rand can be a medium-term

outperformer and a good way to express a still-bullish global growth narrative. With terms of

trade already improving after the latest move in oil, I think USDZAR can move back down

toward 16.00 over the coming months.

TRY There was some consolidation across risk markets yesterday, but the broad dollar generally

continued to trade with a bid tone despite yields stabilizing. USDTRY price action remained

pinned close to state bank offers with lower funding leading to some position reduction from

internationals. State banks are currently on the offer at 46.5150 in line with the expected crawl.

We continue to monitor local flows and there are still no meaningful signs of local

retail dollarisation. Although political risk has also eased somewhat in recent weeks, it’s still

worth keeping an eye on headlines after presidential motions seeking to lift the immunity of

Ozgur Ozel were submitted to the Joint Committee. Our base case for elections