Moonpig FY26 results: a solid beat on EPS, with still clear opportunities ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Moonpig FY26 results: a solid beat on EPS, with still clear opportunities ahead

sue these more aggressively.

• Outlook & Guidance: Moonpig comments that trading since the start of the new

financial year has been in line with expectations, and also that its expectations for FY 27

remain unchanged. Looking to the medium term, management is very clear that the

financial framework is unchanged, including return of excess capital to shareholders. It

is targeting group: revenue growth +M-HSD% yoy (whilst historical guidance had been

for +DD%, we think investor expectations have been lower for some time, and indeed

sell-side company consensus is for a 2-year sales CAGR to FY 28 of +6%; EBITDA

margin 25-27% (unchanged); and EPS growth of +DD% (previously “mid-teens” - we

understand from management that there is no change to its expectations”).

• Estimates changes: Our FY FY 27 and outer year EPS forecasts are materially

unchanged (+1%). Within the mix, we lower our our FY 27 EBITDA forecast by 2% to

£108m (in line with cons. ahead of today) to reflect investments in the delivery

proposition and normalised SBC. This is offset at the EBIT level by D&A guidance being

slightly lower than we had previously forecast. For FY 27 we model EBITDA and EPS

growth of +3% and +10%, respectively.

• Valuation: Moonpig trades on CY 26 and CY 27 PE of 11.7x and 10.x, respectively,

which represent a discount of c.6% and c.14% to our UK General Retail coverage.

• Conference Call Details: There will be an in-person presentation and Q&A at 9.30am

which will be livestreamed. Register for livestream here.

Actual vs Expected:

Table 1: Actual vs. expected FY 26 results

£m FY 25 FY 26A FY 26 JPMe FY 26 Company Cons

Group sales 350 373 373 373

Growth 3% 7% 7% 6%

EBITDA 96.8 104.6 103.4 101.6