BUY GALP, JPM CUTS OIL FORECASTS, TTE, EQNR

Research evidence excerpt

BUY GALP, JPM CUTS OIL FORECASTS, TTE, EQNR

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 25 June 2026

Ian Mitchell

+44 207 134 1356

ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

Key Newsflow

• TODAY - Nothing

• TOMORROW - Nothing

• CRUDE / EU GAS - front-end Brent closed -4.3% yday and is trading -1.8% this morning at $72.4/bbl, -1.9% from the

European close last night and -5.1% from this time yday morning. EU TTF Month Ahead gas closed -3% at €41/MWh

• GALP: OW a catalyst-rich 2H (research available). A milestone-laden 2H26 has potential to unlock value across a (wider)

range of O&G macro scenarios. We reiterate OW Galp on; 1) Differentiated LT oil growth. 2) Downstream M&A.3) 2H

deleveraging.In parallel, we expect FY26 guidance to be raised with 2Q results on 27 July owing to robust YTD operations,

outperformance at Bacalhau and no direct Middle East exposure. This creates scope for Galp to re-rate with less oil price

dependency than peers. A €22 TP is derived from NAV at no more than LT $65 Brent and incorporates a tighter end of sector

10% fair value discount.

• Oil Markets Weekly: Right shock, wrong price (research available). While the magnitude and duration of the oil shock

evolved broadly as expected, the market has rebalanced through a meaningfully different mix of demand losses and inventory

withdrawals than we initially assumed. OECD commercial inventories draws—the most price-sensitive variable in our

framework—have come in below expectations, while demand losses have been larger than expected, implying materially less

upward pressure on oil prices than in our original forecast. We are therefore lowering our Brent outlook for 2H26 and 2027.