Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

24 June 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research Analysts

How to interpret steep drop in tech stocks and outlook Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

US is epicenter; reversal of excess liquidity since December 2025 naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-Astechstocksweakenedyesterday,investorssoughtasafehaveninUSbondsand

USD;thisdoesnotappeartohavebeentriggeredbyanynegativefactorsoriginatingin

theUS.

-MajorUStechstockshavebeeninacorrectionphasealongsidebitcoinsinceearlyJune

or,lookingatthelongerterm,sinceDecemberoflastyear.

-Thiswasprimarilyduetoexpectationsforaglobaleconomicrecoveryandamore

hawkishFed;thewarshockhadhaltedthistrend.

-JulyemploymentdatalikelytoexacerbateratehikeconcernsaheadoftheFOMC,

makingiteasierforexcessliquiditytobewithdrawn.

Today's Japanese markets

In Japanese markets on Wednesday, this author expects equities to be soft and bonds to

remain solid (in overnight futures trading, bonds were up 8 sen and equities were down

JPY480 over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, tech stocks led risk-off moves, with

funds shifting to bonds and USD. In the US bond market, money flowed primarily to the

short and intermediate zones, spurring a textbook flight to quality. At the same time,

upside was limited for long-term bonds and they cheapened against swaps. In the FX

market, USD strengthened across the board, and JPY was also strong due to risk-off

flows, and trended at around 161.5 against USD. JPY rose against cross currencies.

Japanese bonds generally benefit from tech-led risk-off flows, but at the same time equity

weakness could halt or reverse pension funds' shift into bonds. Super-long JGBs have

become expensive, as indicated by a return to levels against swaps not observed since