Assa Abloy Q2‘26 preview: End markets still moving sideways

Research evidence excerpt

Assa Abloy Q2‘26 preview: End markets still moving sideways

25 June 2026

Alasdair Leslie

+44 20 7762 4952

European Capital Goods alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com

Nicholas WittingAssa Abloy AB +44 20 7762 1411

Rating nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Om Kela

+44 20 7550 2192

Price Target om.kela@bernsteinsg.com

ASSAB.SS 385.00 SEK Specialist Sales

James Brady

+44 20 7762 5272

james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

Assa Abloy Q2'26 preview: End markets still moving sideways

Growth has continued to be the drag on Assa Abloy’s equity story, as it has seen flattish volume

Close Date 24 Jun 2026

growth since 2023. For the 2Q26 results, publishing on July 17th, we expect to see little ASSAB.SS Close Price (SEK) 340.00

deviation from these trends, with no expectation of a substantial growth re-acceleration, thus, Price Target (SEK) 385.00

limiting margin expansion. Hence, we continue to see better risk-reward elsewhere, and re- Upside/(Downside) 13%

iterate our Market-Perform, TP of SEK 385. 52-Week Range 396.90/290.40

EDME 1,578.05

2Q26 is likely to be a muted quarter for growth. For 2Q26 we model +2.7% organic FYE Dec

sales growth (vs 3.1% Visible Alpha consensus), with <1% volume growth and ~2% pricing.

Div Yield 1.9%

We expect only a slight sequential volume rebound as factors impacting Q1 (cold weather

Market Cap (SEK) (M) 378,276

for ES and Americas, factory outages) should fade. Yet, despite the ease of these temporary

EV (SEK) (M) 442,393

effects, we see no change in underlying end market trends. Comps are slightly tougher

sequentially (+3% 2Q25 vs +2% 1Q25) also adding pressure to the growth recovery. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (5.3) 1.0 (4.3) 15.6

End markets keep trending sideways. Trends in EMEIA (BERNe +3.6% LFL vs +3.6% EDME (%) 7.3 0.8 7.9 18.7