Large Banks DFAST 2026 Review: Sharp Drop in Capital Required for CFG, Followed by FITB, KEY, Mixed Trends at GSIBs; Dividend Raises Begun

Research evidence excerpt

Large Banks DFAST 2026 Review: Sharp Drop in Capital Required for CFG, Followed by FITB, KEY, Mixed Trends at GSIBs; Dividend Raises Begun

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

25 June 2026

Large Banks DFAST 2026 Review

Sharp Drop in Capital Required for CFG, Followed by

FITB, KEY, Mixed Trends at GSIBs; Dividend Raises

Begun

Key points: 1) 2026 DFAST results will sharply reduce capital requirements due Banks — Large-Cap

ACto large decline in stress capital buffers (SCB) for some Category IV regionals that Vivek Juneja

had not participated in last year’s stress test - Citizens Financial, Fifth Third, and (1-212) 622-6465

Keycorp in our universe which all moved down to the floor; 2) However, results vivek.juneja@jpmorgan.com

were mixed at GSIBs: some decrease in SCB for Citi, but a modest increase in SCB Andrew J Dietrich

for couple of GSIBs (Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan); and 3) one regional not (1-212) 622-4244

covered by us stood out very negatively with very high SCB - First Citizens. Note aj.dietrich@jpmorgan.com

that the SCBs calculated under this year’s stress test will not be implemented until Sai M Nettem

2027 but banks could start to optimize capital by not building and potentially (1-212) 622-2666

sai.nettem@jpmorgan.com

reducing some of the excess above their current requirements. In addition, there is J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

a proposal for averaging the impact of the stress test results over two years to reduce

the swings in capital requirements. Some of the banks already announced dividend

increases yesterday and new share buyback authorizations, and we expect more

increases in the near term. We expect lower capital requirements should drive

higher share buybacks when implemented and boost EPS.