Australian labour: Gentle on the brakes

Research evidence excerpt

Australian labour: Gentle on the brakes

J P M O R G A N Australia Economic Research

25 June 2026

Australian labour: Gentle on the

brakes

Australia's unemployment rate fell one tenth to 4.4% in May, in line with J.P. Australian and New Zealand Interest

Morgan and consensus forecasts and unwinding part of April's jump. Employment Rate Strategy

rose a robust 40K and the participation rate held steady at 66.7%. The number of Tom Ryan

unemployed fell 18.3K, with the ABS attributing the move to an easing in the (61-2) 9003-7632

backlog of people waiting to start a job, a dynamic that inflated unemployment in thomas.f.ryan@jpmorgan.com

prior months and had taken a little longer to clear than anticipated. J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Today's print supports the view that prior data somewhat overstated the pace of

labour market cooling, instead presenting a more gradual softening. With 2Q

inflation tracking below the RBA's SoMP forecasts and services prices showing no

sign of acceleration, we expect the RBA to remain on the sidelines for the rest of

2026.

Turning to the details, employment growth tilted to part-time appointments on the

month (+35.2K), with full-time job growth more muted (+5.2K). Month-to-month

FT/PT composition is volatile and tends to deliver more noise than signal, so we

don't read too much into the soft full-time outcome in isolation, though May’s result

was consistent with frictional movements by those waiting to start work, who are

more likely to work fewer hours. Aggregate employment is up a modest 1.0%oya.

Hours worked fell 1.1%m/m, more than reversing April's 0.9% rise and weaker

than the 0.3% gain in employment. This unwinds last month's unusual strength,

where fewer people appear to have taken leave over the Easter period. The fall