Monthly Auto Review: US LV Sales Remain Resilient Despite Macro Cross-Currents; Expect 16.2 mn SAAR in June; Incentives and ATPs Remain Range Bound

Research evidence excerpt

Monthly Auto Review: US LV Sales Remain Resilient Despite Macro Cross-Currents; Expect 16.2 mn SAAR in June; Incentives and ATPs Remain Range Bound

Rajat Gupta AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6382 25 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

certain regions (Texas outperformance vs. broader market diminishing) and with certain brands

(Stellantis remains a headwind). Our annual auto franchise dealer survey in collaboration with

Chase Auto also indicated tempered full year SAAR expectations (weighted average response

pointing to 15.2 mn SAAR for 2026 vs. 15.4 mn) and anticipated continued pressure on new

GPUs into 2H26. The FTC's pricing and advertising transparency enforcement initiatives have

led to higher displayed advertising prices for consumers, likely creating some sticker shock

headwinds.

For rental car companies (CAR, HTZ): Rental fleet purchases tracked +3% y/y in May and

are tracking +1% y/y YTD through May-end, as per Bobit, indicating continued fleet discipline

into a potentially high demand period.

Consumer health update: Chase credit and debit card data in the US (Source: JPMorgan Chase

Bank, NA, JPMC Index File 2.0, select Chase credit and debit card transaction data. See here for

disclaimers and methodology) shows overall consumer spending tracking +5% y/y MTD

through June 16th, with discretionary spending +5% y/y (+4% ex-gas) and non-discretionary

spending up +5% y/y total (+2% y/y ex-gas). MTD spending is tracking +6% y/y for upper and

middle income consumers each, while up +4% for lower income consumers. Consumer

spending at new car dealers is tracking -2% y/y MTD vs. -4% y/y in May. Consumer confidence,

as measured by the University of Michigan, improved m/m in June (+9.2% m/m, -19.4% y/y).

• May recap: