Metals & Mining: J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Metals & Mining: J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference Takeaways

ion/financing: Melvin suggested upside to the Apr’25 LOI for

$825M from EXIM (link) from recent discussions and the company is also engaged

with ten or so commercial banks for project financing. The balance of capital

required is estimated at ~$300M (expected next 12-15mos) and could be a mix of

offtake agreements and equity investments at the parent/project level.

Lithium Americas (LAC)

We hosted Lithium Americas’ CEO, Jonathan Evans, at our 2026 Natural

Resources Conference. Discussions primarily focused on 1) lithium and downstream

market dynamics, 2) Thacker Pass strategy and operating execution, and 3) capital

allocation and commercialization. For context, in our prior CEO Series note (link),

Evans emphasized a constructive EV + ESS demand setup, the importance of price

discovery / fair market pricing, Phase 1 mechanical completion target for late 2027 with

volumes ramping through 2028, and 2026 as a “peak capex” year, alongside incremental

tariff exposure/capex inflation to be defined.

• Price drives battery chemistry and pace of investment: Incrementally, Evans

provided a more explicit framework for chemistry substitution in ESS (where

sodium-ion may become more relevant at >$30/kg LCE, but faces meaningful

energy density tradeoffs at current lithium price levels) while noting that longer-

dated solid-state pathways could still be lithium-intensive even if battery size

declines, implying that substitution risk is not one-directional. He also tied today’s

spot price ($23.5/kg LCE) more directly to greenfield financing behavior, suggesting

the market likely needs “six months” of supportive pricing before developers/banks

meaningfully re-engage, and reinforced that long equipment lead times may