Australia Economics: Despite volatility and revisions, the labour market remains solid

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Economics: Despite volatility and revisions, the labour market remains solid

Australia Economics

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Figure 1. Headline Labour market metrics Figure 2. Wage Costs

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. Source: Citi Research, ABS

Source: Citi Research, ABS

…and in earlier months, despite data revisions. The ABS revised the labour force data going back to July 2024 on account of

last week’s release of estimated resident population data. This had the effect of lowering measured employment on average

back to August 2025. However, the revisions also lowered labour force participation. In other words, there were level shifts in

the numerator and denominator that largely cancelled each other out. This meant that historical unemployment rate data was

unchanged, which is what matters most for evaluating the health of the labour market.

Other labour market metrics also remain solid. There are a host of other data showing the Australian labour market in solid

health, particularly when compared to the long-run pre-pandemic average. The retrenchment rate remains below 1%, with

slightly more than half of people being made redundant finding employment in the subsequent quarter and less people

remaining unemployed (Figure 3). This has helped keep the median and average durations of unemployment below their long-

term average. The employment to population ratio remains near a record, with almost a record number of workers holding more

than one job (Figure 4). Finally, employment conditions are signalling no further decline in the yearly pace of employment.