Australia Banks (AQ), Orix, ICICI Bank (feedback), Fed Stress Test

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Banks (AQ), Orix, ICICI Bank (feedback), Fed Stress Test

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

25 June 2026

Australia Banks (AQ), Orix, ICICI Bank (feedback), Fed Stress

Test

Ayano Tsunoda

+81 3 6736 7628

ayano.tsunoda@jpmorgan.com

Key topics in today’s daily:

• Australia Banks: Judo’s guide cut as warning for asset quality deterioration

• ICICI Bank feedback: FCNR

• Orix: Koki raises PT but Neutral as we wait for new KPIs to assess underlying growth ex Toshiba

• Fed bank stress test: Helpful signal overall, although not impacting capital requirements

Today - Macro: Australia Employment, BoJ Tamura

Good morning,

As Brent dipped below $75/bbl for the first time since before the conflict, yields fell across DM. (Our year-end house view was

lowered to $78.) US10Y broke below the 4.4-4.435% resistance zone. Our US thematics spec Marissa captured the moment well.

“The removal of geopolitical worry paves the way for shift in equity allocations as it sets the stage for broader growth beyond

secular narratives (AI).” (Link) Our global strategist raised our SPX year-end target to 7,800 as drivers are broadening out and

fundamentals are resembling an early cycle growth profile. (Link) Our year-end US10Y forecast remains 4.7% though, driven by

a combination of hawkish policy expectations, a higher term premium, and less supportive foreign demand dynamics. (Link)

But, damage may have already been done in some parts of the world. While Australia banks may already be consensus shorts,

Judo’s surprise guidance downgrade may be a warning to the sector. (JDO -42% this morning.) Their lowered FY27 PBT guide is

15% below consensus due to broad-based deterioration in asset quality. RBA has made accelerated hikes ahead of Iran War. CPI