India Strategy: The New Monsoon Regime - Repricing Winners and Losers

Research evidence excerpt

India Strategy: The New Monsoon Regime - Repricing Winners and Losers

24 June 2026

India Strategy

India Strategy: The New Monsoon Regime - Repricing Winners

and Losers

The traditional market narrative almost states that Indian agriculture is purely a rain-linked Venugopal Garre

+65 6326 7643 play and numbers like “60% dependence on monsoons” are usually thrown to accentuate

venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com the effect. The reality, however, is changing. Monsoons aren’t impacting India the way they

used to, and the changing dynamics warrant a reset in how we perceive rainfall and its

Nikhil Arela effects. Where do we overstate the impact, and is something understated deep beneath?

+91 226 842 1482

nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com All this, and investment implications follow in this note.

A broken correlation: Monsoons and foodgrain production was tightly linked in India

throughout history. The past decade has seen a gradual reset. Below normal monsoons

have been met with increasing production and instances of normal or above normal

monsoons have seen challenges. What’s caused this breakaway? Two key trends have

shaped this new relationship. The first is increased access to irrigation, which reduces

dependency on monsoons, even though it comes at a risk of depleting water tables. India’s

share of irrigated land as a percent of total area under cultivation stands at 60% today, vs

~42% in the early 2000s. Many agri-centric states are above 70%. The second is a change

in farming practices that has resulted in the Monsoon-centric Kharif season no longer the

premium crop sowing period. From ~60% share of foodgrain production till the 90s, Kharif

season in 2025-26 constituted 47% of total foodgrains produced. Rabi/Winter crops are