REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Margin weakness and LFL cracks overshadow the expansion story; D/g to Underweight
Research evidence excerpt
Margin weakness and LFL cracks overshadow the expansion story; D/g to Underweight
fixing and growing the core as a priority while also
looking at building adjacencies around the core business. In our view, this tone is
quite worrying at this stage, given Leejam has been embarking on this expansion
strategy for more than 18 months and the P&L profile has seen significant pressure
in terms of yield dilution, margin pressure and more recently LFL revenue
compression. While we welcome management’s focus on addressing LFL portfolio
weakness, we argue this comes at a tricky time with a growing number of centers
still in ramp-up stage, an increased pace of competition in the overall fitness market
and persistent pressure on group P&L performance when the street was expecting a
turnaround in the margin story and P&L return to growth to start playing out in
2026. That said, we now expect further delays to the P&L growth story and await
better visibility from management on the new strategy and any clear initiatives to
drive LFL performance and support profitability recovery.
• Center roll-out strategy remains in focus but poses its own challenges: As per
the latest disclosures, management guidance is for 25 new openings during 2026
(JPMe 23 openings) along with a near-term target to reach 250 Fitness Time centers
(FY 25 at 219 centers). Of these, the company has already opened 7 net new centers
during Q1 26, implying around 18 openings during the remainder of 2026. This
suggests another busy year in terms of new openings which means sustained
pressure on membership yields, SG&A intensity and operating margins, in our view.
For context, Leejam opened 29/16 centers during FY 24/25, adding c. 26% to its
existing network of 174 centers as of FY 23-end, although over this period the
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