Daily Economic Briefing: Purchasing power lift on the horizon

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Purchasing power lift on the horizon

Maia Crook Global Economic Research J P M O R G A N(1-212) 622-8435 24 June 2026

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

downside growth risks as fading, while concerns around upside inflation risks are

intensifying. Relatively few members commented on the pace or specific timing of

further moves, though two members did argue for accelerating the pace of hikes. The

dovish dissenting vote by Board Member Asada and the decision to halt tapering may

partially reflect the influence of political pressure. However, we expect sustained

inflation risks and market pressure — via FX and long-term interest rates — will

ultimately support a BoJ rate hike in October.

• In contrast to the decline in the German flash PMI, today’s IFO survey showed a modest

improvement in June. The level of the expectations series remains weak, however,

continuing to suggest a contraction in growth. We add more weight to the PMI, which is

consistent with flat growth, but both series are flagging downside risks to our 0.2%ar 2Q

forecast. On the pricing side, today’s France INSEE survey mirrored the modest pullback

in yesterday’s pricing PMIs. With a further sector breakdown available, the INSEE

declines were led by energy-sensitive manufacturing and service sectors, while tech

pressures continued to rise.

• The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate unchanged today, as widely expected. While

other central banks in the region have moved towards hiking in response to FX pressures,

the BOT sounded comfortable with the recent TBH depreciation, reinforcing our long-

held view that FX implications for the policy outlook are limited. This characterization

added to an overall dovish tone. With a still-below-potential growth outlook, easing