JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - UST moves explained / Crude move paves the path for a post-war regime in equities

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JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - UST moves explained / Crude move paves the path for a post-war regime in equities

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

24 June 2026

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - UST moves explained / Crude

move paves the path for a post-war regime in equities

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Bottom Line: The dominant macro signal in the market today today is crude capitulation. Brent breaking below $75,

beneath both its 200dma and the pre-war baseline, is not noise. This is a regime shift in the inflation narrative, and the

transmission mechanism into fixed income is already live. The rally in Treasuries is being driven by a mix of fundamental

inflation-expectation unwind and asymmetric rates positioning. The removal of geopolitical worry paves the way for a shift

in equity allocations as it sets the stage for broader growth beyond secular narratives (AI). This isn’t a call to sell AI, but

rather to broaden out the scope of investment opportunities.

Yesterday I discussed how the market was sitting at an inflection point, and crude’s translation to lower inflation-expectations and

subsequent re-rating of duration could kick off a rotation into new equity leadership. The ‘AI-concentration’ trade has been

boosted materially by investors searching for secular growth stories amidst uncertainty, a dynamic that could shift as the

geopolitical fog clears. Otherwise stated, the market was simply waiting for a signal from oil markets that the war-related

inflation risk is fully priced out before kicking off a powerful rotation into yield-sensitive equities.

SOXX Cumulative return attribution