Asahi Group Holdings (2502): Still Neutral: Limited scope for near-term returns, likely to take time to recover to 1x P/B

Research evidence excerpt

Asahi Group Holdings (2502): Still Neutral: Limited scope for near-term returns, likely to take time to recover to 1x P/B

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

25 June 2026

Asahi Group Holdings (2502) Neutral

2502.T, 2502 JP

Still Neutral: Limited scope for near-term returns, likely Price (24 Jun 26):¥1,525

to take time to recover to 1x P/B Price Target (Dec-26):¥1,700

We maintain our ¥1,700 price target through December 2026 and our Neutral Japan Equity Research

rating. The company has not ruled out a share buyback in FY2026, but financial

Food, Beverage, and Tobacco

leverage is likely to rise with the acquisition of East African Breweries (EABL) in

2H FY2026, so we think a large-scale buyback is unlikely in the near term. We Satoshi Fujiwara AC

estimate that net debt/adjusted EBITDA will fall to around 3x at the end of FY2027, (81-3) 6736-8652

satoshi.fujiwara@jpmorgan.com

and that the company will buy back ¥200 billion in shares annually from FY2028.

Hideto Takahashi

However, we expect ROE to run at 6–7% and cost of equity to be below 8% for the (81-3) 6736-8638

time being, and we think it will take time to lift P/B above the 1x mark. Asahi Group hideto.takahashi@jpmorgan.com

Holdings is scheduled to announce FY2025 results on July 8. JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Earnings estimates: We estimate that core operating profit fell 9% YoY to

¥260 billion in FY2025 (guidance revised to ¥260 billion on June 11), but will Key Changes (FYE Dec)

rise 20% YoY to ¥311.7 billion in FY2026 (previously ¥318.8 billion) and 11% Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 25E (¥) 105.37 80.13 -24.0%

to ¥345.6 billion in FY2027 (¥348.2 billion). We factor in the positive impact

of yen depreciation in exchange rates, but lower our profit forecasts slightly Style Exposure