US: New home sales slump; builders face elevated inventories

Research evidence excerpt

US: New home sales slump; builders face elevated inventories

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

24 June 2026

US: New home sales slump;

builders face elevated inventories

New home sales fell 7.3%m/m in May to 580k saar, leaving sales down 19.8% year Economic and Policy Research

to date. The drop came as a surprise relative to both our forecast for a modest rise Bennett Parrish

and consensus expectations for a stronger rebound from April’s decline. Excluding (1-212) 622-9003

the unusually weak January figure, which we believe was distorted by severe bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

winter weather, the Census series now stands at its lowest level since September JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

2022. The May decline was led by the West, where sales fell 26.9%m/m to the

slowest pace since last October. The South—the largest homebuilding region—

saw sales slip 4.1%. Sales improved modestly in the Midwest and Northeast.

Builders continue to lean on price reductions and incentives to support sales, but

these measures have struggled to offset persistent affordability concerns.

Mortgage rates have largely moved sideways near nine-month highs of around

6.6% in recent weeks. The median sales price of a new single-family home edged

up to $424k in May, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Inventories remain

elevated, with 496k new homes for sale at month-end, representing 10.3 months’

supply—matching a thirteen-year high set in July 2022. In response, contractors

have slowed the pace of construction.

Looking ahead, the NAHB and MBA builder application surveys point to

continued subdued momentum in upcoming reports. Mortgage rates remain nearly

40bp above February levels and will continue to act as a headwind to activity in the

months ahead.