Sony Financial Group (8729): Earnings model update

Research evidence excerpt

Sony Financial Group (8729): Earnings model update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

24 June 2026

Sony Financial Group (8729) Neutral

8729.T, 8729 JP

Earnings model update Price (24 Jun 26):¥139

▼Price Target (Dec-26):¥150

Prior (Dec-26):¥155

We lower our December 2026 price target slightly, from ¥155 to ¥150, and

maintain our Neutral rating. The shares are at low levels in absolute terms on Japan Equity Research

various valuation metrics (P/E based on adjusted profits, dividend yield, Insurance, Securities, Diversified

comprehensive equity ratio). However, given that (1) the effects of measures to Financials

reduce interest rate risk will take time to emerge, (2) concerns about the AC Koki Sato

sustainability of the life planner model will continue until the results of the (81-3) 6736-8609

investigation into suspected fraudulent activity are disclosed, and (3) policy koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

surrenders could increase due to rising interest rates, we believe a sense that issues Yuka Azami

are under control will take time. (81-3) 6736-8619

yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

• Earnings outlook (IFRS basis): We forecast FY2026 adjusted net profit of JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

¥108.9 billion (+4% YoY), slightly below guidance of ¥110 billion. Loss

factors in the life insurance business are difficult to forecast, and a rise in long-

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

term interest rates (guidance assumes a 40-year rate of 3.7% vs a rate on June

Prev Cur Δ

22 of 3.767%) and deterioration in the surrender rate could cause an Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 17.30 16.23 -6.2%

undershoot. We forecast adjusted net profit of ¥118.8 billion (+9% YoY) in Adj. EPS - 28E (¥) 19.45 17.71 -8.9%

FY2027 and ¥133.2 billion (+12%) in FY2028. We expect the main drivers of