Indonesia Diversified Metals & Mining: Revisiting Indonesia‘s Nickel RKAB Quota Debate

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Diversified Metals & Mining: Revisiting Indonesia‘s Nickel RKAB Quota Debate

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24 Jun 2026 09:31:16 ET │ 9 pages

Indonesia Diversified Metals & Mining

Revisiting Indonesia’s Nickel RKAB Quota Debate

CITI’S TAKE

We believe market’s concern surrounding recent headline (Bloomberg, 24-

June), suggesting that Indonesia may raise nickel ore RKAB approvals to

360mn wmt as relatively premature. While mid-year revisions have always

been part of RKAB framework (with measured relaxation anticipated), our

industry checks indicate a materially smaller increase as more probable, Ryan DavisAC

broadly in the ~30mn wmt to a very stretched ~70mn wmt maximum +62-21-2924-9218

uplift from current ~250-260mn wmt approved quota, likely to arrive at ryan1.davis@citi.com

~300mn wmt in our view. More importantly, even if approvals were

eventually lifted toward >300mn wmt, the market appears to be

overlooking two key constraints: timing and ore quality. Most additional

approvals would only occur in 2H26, leaving miners limited time to

translate permits into meaningful production growth. Meanwhile,

declining ore grades imply more ore is required to generate the same nickel

units, meaning higher RKAB volumes do not necessarily translate into a

proportional increase in nickel supply.

The headline number may overstate the actual outcome – While the headline

suggests that annual approvals could rise from roughly ~260mn wmt issued in 1H

currently approved to 360mn wmt, however, industry participants we spoke with

broadly challenged the magnitude of such an increase with several producers

indicating they had not received any communication regarding a revision of that scale.

According to our industry channel check, an incremental additions closer to ~30mn