Global Equity Strategy 2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Global Equity Strategy 2026 Mid-Year Outlook

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

24 June 2026

Global Equity Strategy

2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Our equity view started the year very constructive on the back of the US-led AI Global Equity Strategy

supercycle. So far YTD, consensus earnings growth has been revised higher to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas AC

~20% on average for the next two years, in lockstep with a near doubling of AI (1-212) 622-3601

capex. In hindsight, we should have been even more positive on the outlook for dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com

S&P 500 earnings growth, which has seen YTD upgrades to both 2026 and 2027 Bhupinder Singh AC

consensus estimates of ~10%. This type of positive revision is unprecedented and (1-212) 622-9812

bhupinder.singh@jpmorgan.com

is typically seen only after a shock or post-recession. In this case, the positive shock

William Matheson

coincided with the last earnings season, when companies raised capex budgets,

(1-212) 622-9538

followed by the April 7th Anthropic headline confirming the viability of AI william.matheson@jpmchase.com

Services. Against this backdrop, and with the US/Iran working towards a Ana Pous Avila

peace deal, we are approaching our “Blue Sky” scenario (see AI & Security (1-212) 622-0496

Resurgence) and increasing our S&P 500 year-end price target to 7,800. ana.pousavila@jpmorgan.com

However, it’s important to keep in mind that the path upwards will likely be Kamal Tamboli

non-linear, as the market will need to clear various hurdles. Strong back-to- (1-212) 622-5794

back earnings have reset the bar higher heading into the 2Q season, making it more kamal.r.tamboli@jpmorgan.com

difficult for companies to significantly surprise to the upside on both earnings and Arun Jain

(1-212) 622-9454

capex.