Oil Markets Weekly: Right shock, wrong price

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Markets Weekly: Right shock, wrong price

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

24 June 2026

Oil Markets Weekly

Right shock, wrong price

• While the magnitude and duration of the oil shock evolved broadly as Global Commodities Research

expected, the market has rebalanced through a meaningfully different Natasha Kaneva

mix of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than we initially (1-212) 834-3175

assumed. natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

• OECD commercial inventories draws—the most price-sensitive variable Lyuba(1-212) 270-3781Savinova

in our framework—have come in below expectations, while demand losses lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com

have been larger than expected, implying materially less upward pressure

Artem Fakhretdinov

on oil prices than in our original forecast. (1-212) 272-1839

• We are therefore lowering our Brent outlook for 2H26 and 2027. We now artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

forecast Brent averaging $86 in 3Q26 and $80 in 4Q26, exiting 2026 at $78, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

and averaging $64 in 2027. Even so, our revised path remains materially

above the forward curve in 2026 and below the curve in 2027.

Since we first built our pricing framework in February 2020, it has provided a

consistently robust anchor for our market views. The framework is transparent and

translates assumptions regarding physical balances, inventory dynamics, and

supply disruptions into an implied price. On only two occasions did we choose to

overrule its outputs. In both instances, subsequent outcomes showed that the

decision was wrong. As a result, we apply a higher bar to disregarding the

framework solely due to apparent market pricing.

At times, however, the framework produces results that appear counterintuitive,