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Research evidence excerpt

Top Stories

venue, adj. EBITDA and adj. net income CAGRs of 23%, 24% and 25%, respectively. Our base case 2026-27

Revenue and Adj. Net income forecasts are 5-8% above Bloomberg consensus, while the deviation in outer years is c.15%

likely on the back of our more constructive view on Rasan’s ability to scale new verticals. Whilst Rasan’s shares have had an

impressive 315% run post IPO and are already trading at superior valuations, our analysis of a bull case scenario suggests

40%+ upside potential subject to more ambitious long-term penetration rates in health insurance, loan financing and a more

meaningful conversion in motor insurance from TPL to comprehensive.

Banrisul (Yuri R Fernandes) (BRSR6 BZ, UW, PT R$15.00), Brazil

Trimming 27E EPS By 5% - We Incorporate RS Payroll Contract and Remain UW

Last week Banrisul announced it will pay R$1.26bn (~20% of market cap) to renew its payroll contract with the state of Rio

Grande do Sul for a shortened 5-year term (link). We have a negative take: we had assumed a similar contract value (R

$1.25bn) but over 10 years, and a phased payment to limit the NII impact. The shorter tenor and upfront outflow should drive: (i)

higher amortization expenses (from R$125mn/year to R$253mn pre-tax; implying ~5% EPS headwind); (ii) lower NII from cash

outflow (~R$164mn pre-tax; ~8% EPS headwind); and (iii) ~170bp CET1 ratio decrease due to higher intangibles. We have

updated our model to incorporate these impacts and we now sit 12% below consensus for 2026 and 10% below for 2027. We

also roll our PT to Dec-27 unchanged at R$15 (rollover offset by lower EPS) and maintain our UW rating. Beyond this, we still

see challenges: (1) higher rates potentially pressuring NIM; (2) network and headcount reduction to follow private banks; (3)