JPM | NICKEL (-3%): Indonesia May Completely Reverse Quota Cuts, Thoughts & Aluminum/Coal Readthrough

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | NICKEL (-3%): Indonesia May Completely Reverse Quota Cuts, Thoughts & Aluminum/Coal Readthrough

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

24 June 2026

JPM | NICKEL (-3%): Indonesia May Completely Reverse Quota

Cuts, Thoughts & Aluminum/Coal Readthrough

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

(Bloomberg) Indonesia may allow a significant rise in nickel-mine production later this year, which may provide relief for local

smelters while weighing on global prices of the battery metal. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has informed some

miners that mid-year revisions will boost total mining quotas to 360 million tons for this year, up from about 260 million tons

issued in the first half. If approved, the move would mark a sharp reversal from Indonesia’s tightening of nickel quotas at the

start of the year, which triggered a sharp rise in prices on the London Metal Exchange.

SPEC VIEW:Nickel prices trading down 3% at the time of writing & ANTM/INCO down 4%/6%, which isn’t great but not far

from other base metals which are also down today. Whilst we had a lot of concerned chatter into these July negotiations, this

suggested quota increase is FAR above expectations - pretty much everyone I spoke to expected a quota increase by 25-40MT but

100MT increase not in anyone’s numbers & almost reinstates last year’s quota which was at 379wmt. The 3 questions here are 1)

What’s the floor for Nickel? In our view still above $16,000/t as HPM formula has been revised higher & energy costs are high

too which ensures the government gets paid & smelters don’t lose money. 2) Is this a positive read for Aluminum? Client

feedback from a competitor trip to region last month indicated that Power capacity would be redirected from Nickel towards