Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 24 June 2026

EM FX

RUB Despite getting close to 75.00 in early trading, usd/rub drifted lower to close around 74.25/50. I

would normally expect onshore exporter flows to kick in at this point in the month so would

imagine we've seen a short term top.

ZAR Another session of outperformance for the greenback yesterday, with the desk seeing decent

demand for USDZAR, mainly from real-money accounts. I’m still running a very modest ZAR

long here, but the overall portfolio remains skewed toward USD longs, mainly

versus G10. There’s very little on the data calendar today, so I expect equities to drive overall

risk sentiment this morning.

TRY The broad dollar continues to trade with a firm bid tone with pressure across risk markets

weighing on the EM fx. USDTRY price action is still firmly contained by state-bank offers

which is currently at 46.4975, broadly in line with the expected crawl. Offshore flows were

mixed yesterday, after the real money inflows we saw on Monday.

Local flows remain the main focus as there are still no meaningful signs of local

retail dollarisation. Although political risk has also eased somewhat in recent weeks, it’s still

worth keeping an eye on headlines after presidential motions seeking to lift the immunity of

Ozgur Ozel were submitted to the Joint Committee. Our base case for elections

still remain closer to late-2027. On flows, good sized offshore inflows last week are also

showing up in fx reserves, with NFA ex-FX swaps back around $30bn. While the current FX

framework becomes harder to sustain over the long term without continued reserve rebuilding